The US PC market has experienced a resurgence in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a 3% growth rate that reversed the previous two quarters of decline. This growth can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the peak of Windows 11 commercial refreshes, increased demand during the holiday season, and vendors' proactive measures to secure inventory ahead of anticipated memory and storage supply constraints in 2026.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the intricate interplay of market forces. The consumer segment, for instance, witnessed a 6% increase in shipments, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. This can be attributed to holiday spending and a strategic shift towards more affordable price ranges. On the other hand, the commercial segment grew by 4% as enterprises continued their migration to Windows 11, especially in the lead-up to the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline.
However, not all segments fared equally well. The education segment, for example, experienced an 11% decline in Q4, albeit an improvement from the steeper drops in Q2 and Q3. Reduced federal and state funding continues to impact school procurement, but there are signs that the inventory overhang from earlier in the year has been addressed.
Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 is more cautious due to significant supply constraints in memory and storage products. Costs have risen by 40-70% since the start of 2025, and further increases are expected in Q1 2026. These constraints are anticipated to have the most impact on the sub-$500 segment, which includes many education and entry-level consumer devices. As a result, smaller vendors may struggle to maintain their market presence due to thinner margins and lower allocation priorities.
In terms of vendor performance, Dell had a standout quarter, surging 22% year-on-year to claim the number two position with a 25% market share. Its growth was primarily driven by the commercial segment, where it secured large enterprise refresh deals and strong momentum in its premium lines. Meanwhile, HP retained the top spot with a 25% share, despite more modest growth. Lenovo and Apple also maintained their positions with market shares in the mid-teens.
One detail that I find especially interesting is Apple's market share gains in US businesses. In full-year 2025, Apple reached an 11% share, up 2.4 percentage points from 2024. This growth can be attributed to the success of the MacBook Air, especially after doubling the M4 Air's memory to 16GB while reducing the price to $999, the same as the M1. The introduction of the $599 Neo is expected to further disrupt the entry-level segment and solidify Apple's position in the market.
In conclusion, the US PC market's growth in Q4 2025 was a welcome inflection point, driven by a combination of factors. However, the outlook for 2026 is more cautious due to supply constraints and the potential impact on smaller vendors and certain market segments. It will be intriguing to see how the market adapts and whether Apple's strategic moves continue to pay off in the coming years.
