Sussan Ley is on the verge of announcing a frontbench composed solely of Liberal party members in the coming days, signifying a definitive split from the Coalition. This decision comes as she contends with a campaign from within the right faction aimed at challenging her leadership due to the recent fallout with the Nationals.
Supporters of Ley in the opposition are growing more assured that she will not face a leadership challenge when Parliament reconvenes next week. However, key conservative figures such as Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor have yet to disclose their plans regarding the leadership.
In a cautionary note directed at colleagues who are scheming to unseat the first female leader of the Liberal party, a senior MP remarked that the party's integrity would be severely compromised if Ley were removed at the behest of the Nationals.
Recently, David Littleproud, the leader of the Nationals, declared the Coalition under Ley’s leadership to be "untenable" after she dismissed three Nationals senators for defying party lines on Labor’s hate speech legislation. This action led to the Nationals exiting the frontbench and marking the second dissolution of the Coalition in just eight months.
Despite some criticisms of Ley’s overall leadership, many Liberals stand by her decisions and believe that the blame for the Coalition's disintegration lies firmly with Littleproud.
One senior Liberal source conveyed to Guardian Australia, "Our party's credibility would be in shambles if we acquiesce to the Nationals’ demands to replace our leader. This is a crucial moment for the Liberal party to rally behind a leader who acted in accordance with what every member believes was the right course of action after the Nationals disregarded our Coalition agreement."
Although Ley remains open to the possibility of reuniting with the Nationals, an increasing number of her colleagues feel that the two parties are likely to remain separated for the foreseeable future—especially if Littleproud continues to lead.
Senior members of the Liberal party are not viewing the Nationals’ recent breach of shadow cabinet unity over the hate speech laws as an isolated incident; rather, they see it as part of a troubling trend that could recur. They point to the Nationals’ opposition to the voice to parliament referendum and their abandonment of a net-zero emissions goal as instances where the junior party has taken a proactive stance on policy, thus pressuring the Liberals to conform or risk further divisions.
"We are done playing these games," affirmed one Liberal member.
Tim Wilson, a Liberal frontbencher, expressed on Sky News that it was difficult to envision the Coalition reuniting while Littleproud remains in his position.
Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski remarked that maintaining a Coalition partnership is ineffective when the Nationals are so focused on countering threats from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.
As rumors swirl about a potential leadership spill that could happen as soon as Monday, senior Liberal sources have confirmed that Ley is indeed moving forward with plans to introduce a shadow ministry made up exclusively of Liberal members prior to the return of Parliament the following day.
The announcement is anticipated to come after the memorial service for the late former Liberal MP Katie Allen, set for Thursday.
One proposal on the table involves reallocating the Nationals' portfolios—which encompass areas like agriculture, trade, resources, transport, and veterans’ affairs—to current Liberal frontbenchers. Alternatively, Ley might promote certain MPs to frontbench roles.
Littleproud is reportedly gearing up to assign portfolios to his Nationals colleagues this week.
On Tuesday, the momentum to oust Ley seemed to falter as Hastie and Taylor had not yet agreed on who would represent the right faction in a leadership bid. Supporters of Hastie are pushing for Taylor to step aside, asserting that the former soldier has sufficient backing from the faction and support from other party members to potentially unseat Ley.
However, sources indicate that Taylor, who narrowly lost a leadership contest to Ley after the election, is unwilling to allow Hastie to bypass him in the party hierarchy.
Ley's supporters are increasingly optimistic that there will be no leadership challenge next week, citing robust internal backing for her response to the Nationals' split and the lack of organization among those seeking to orchestrate her downfall.
"It simply isn’t going to happen," stated one MP.
